73% of respondents are expecting a positive 2nd quarter 2015.
According to the results of the 25th European City Tourism Monitor, a total of 73% of city tourism professionals participating in the survey expect bednights in the 2nd quarter of 2015 to increase. This figure is the same as in the 2nd quarter 2014 report, where 73% likewise expected a growth in total bednights.
A majority of experts (56%) expect growth to be between 1 and 5%, whilst 18% believe that bednight volumes will grow significantly more than 5%. 16% believe the number of bednights will be similar to last year, while 11% of experts expect a decrease in total bednights in the 2nd quarter of 2015.
In contrast to the previous survey, positive expectations are present for both domestic bednights and hotel prices, indicated by a an upward-sloping curve. However, a downward-sloping curve is seen in both total bednights and international bednights. This downwards trend indicates that the expectations for total bednights in general in this survey are slightly lower than in the previous report.
Expectations for the whole of 2015 in terms of total bednights are also positive. As many as 79% of respondents expect a growth in total bednights in 2015, with the majority (59%) expecting a growth of plus 1% to plus 5%.
Growth in the 2nd quarter is expected to come predominantly from the leisure segment and from both domestic and international markets, however, with regional differences. On average 69% of all respondents are expecting domestic growth and 74% international growth. Compared to the previous survey, an upward-sloping curve is seen within both domestic bednights and hotel prices, both becoming more positive. However, a downward-sloping curve is seen within both total bednights and international bednights. The downwards trend indicates that the expectations for bednights in general in this survey are slightly lower than in the previous report.
Looking at the six markets included in this report, the results for the 2nd quarter of 2015 compared to the same quarter in 2014 shows that the markets, expected to grow by most respondents, are the American (69%), German (69%) and British (62%). These are followed by the Spanish market, which is considered likely to grow by 53% of respondents.
With regards to expectations for the hotel prices, more than half of the experts (51%) expect hotel prices to stay the same. In the previous report, this figure was 44%. At the same time, 44% expect an increase in the hotel prices, whilst 5% expect prices to decrease.
Expectations for the whole of 2015 in terms of total bednights are positive for the 2nd quarter of 2015. As many as 79% expect a growth in total bednights in 2015, with the majority (59%) expecting a growth of plus 1% to plus 5%. Just 7% expect the total number of bednights to stay the same, whilst 10% expect a decrease in the number of bednights in 2015. Compared to the findings of the previous report, the level of expectations for 2015 are slightly less optimistic (92%).
Key factors affecting tourism in the 2nd quarter 2015
Survey respondents were given the opportunity to comment on expected developments. The following summary consolidates some of the most commonly mentioned themes: Planned events, developments in exchange rates and new air routes are the factors that most experts mention as factors that will have a positive influence on the development in the next three months.
In addition, the economic outlook, marketing and communications campaigns, and increased capacity will also have a positive effect on the industry. On the other hand, experts suggest that the political situation between Ukraine and Russia will have a negative influence on industry growth in the next three months.
For further details on this report, or the project, please contact:
Lone Alletorp Callard (Author of this report)