European City Tourism Monitor XXVII – summary

92% of respondents are expecting a positive 4th quarter 2015.

According to the results of the 27th European City Tourism Monitor, a total of 92% of the city tourism professionals participating in the survey expect bednights in the 4th quarter of 2015 to increase. This figure is more positive than in the 3rd quarter 2015 report, where 72% expected a growth in total bednights.

The majority of experts (62%) expect growth to be between 1 and 5%, whilst 29% of them believe that bednight volumes will grow significantly, by more than 5%. 6% believe the number of bednights will be similar to last year and 2% of the experts are expecting a decrease in total bednights in the 4th quarter of 2015.
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Growth in the 4th quarter is expected to come predominantly from the leisure segment (83%) and from both domestic and international markets, though expectations differ across the regions. On average 75% of all respondents are expecting domestic growth and 87% international growth.

Compared to the previous survey, an upward-sloping curve is seen in the difference between positive and negative expectations for both international bednights and total bednights. In contrast, a downward-sloping curve is seen for both domestic bednights and hotel prices. This downwards trend indicates that the expectations for domestic bednights and hotel prices in this survey are similar to the previous report.

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Looking at the six markets included in this report, the results for the 4th quarter of 2015 compared to the same quarter in 2014 show that the markets expected to grow by the most respondents are the British (75%), the German (69%) and the American (60%) markets. They are followed by the Spanish market, which is expected to grow by 58% of respondents, the Italian (56%) and the French market (42%).

Hotel prices

With regard to expectations for hotel prices, 30% of the experts expect hotel prices to stay the same. At the same time, 53% expect an increase in the hotel prices, whilst 6% expect prices to decrease.

Year 2015

Expectations in terms of total bednights for the 4th quarter of 2015 are positive. As many as 91% of respondents expect a growth in total bednights in 2015, with the majority (54%) expecting a growth of between 1% and 5%. Just 9% of the experts expect the total number of bednights to decrease in 2015.
Compared to the findings of the previous report, the level of expectations for 2015 are more optimistic.

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Key factors affecting tourism in the 4th quarter 2015

The respondents had the opportunity to comment on the expected developments. The following factors summarise some of the most often mentioned categories.

According to respondents, forthcoming events, the prospect of an economic recovery and changes in exchange rates will positively influence tourism in the next three months. Planned meetings, congresses, value for money and an increase in demand will likewise have a positive effect on the total bednights within the next quarter of 2015.

The respondents also state that the expected increase in the 4th quarter of 2015 could be the result of efforts put into branding, marketing and communication campaigns.

Accessibility and increasing capacity are likewise factors that the experts expect will have an influence on tourism development in the next three months.

On the other hand, some experts mention a fall in their main markets and the economic and sociopolitical situation (i.e. Russia) as negative factors influencing development in the next quarter.

For further details on this report, or the project, please contact:
Claudia Pinna (Author of this report)