Optimism has increased relatively – almost 3 out of 4 of the experts were confident in a positive 4th quarter 2013.
According to the results of the 19th European City Tourism Monitor, a total of 73% of city tourism professionals, participating in the survey, expected bednights in the 4th quarter of 2013 to increase, compared to the same period in 2012. Expectations for the whole of 2013 compared to 2012 were significantly more positive than for the 4th quarter. As many as 80% expected a growth in total bednights for the whole of 2013.
73% of those interviewed expected bednights in their city destinations to grow in the 4th quarter of 2013. This is an increase compared to the previous report, looking into the expectations for the 3rd quarter 2013, where 54% expected a growth in total bednights. The majority of experts (54%) expected growth to be between 1 and 5%, whilst 19% believed that bednight volumes will grow more than 5%. 19% believed number of bednights would be similar to 2012, and 8% were expecting a slight decrease in total bednights.
Comparing to the previous survey, the difference between positive and negative expectations has overall decreased slightly for all segments.
Growth in the 4th quarter is expected to come predominantly from the leisure segment and from the international markets, however, with regional differences. Overall 75% of all respondents expect international growth. In comparison only 48% expect growth in domestic bednights. Looking at the six markets included in this report, growth is expected to come mainly from the German, British and American markets, whilst bednights particularly from the Spanish market are expected to decrease. Italy is expected to stay nearly the same.
With regards to expectations for the hotel prices the majority (57%) expected hotel prices to stay the same. This is the same as the previous report, where also 57% expected the hotel prices to stay the same. 33% expected an increase, whilst 8% expected prices to decrease.
Expectations for the whole of 2013 in terms of all bednights were considerable more positive than the expectations for the 4th quarter of 2013.
As many as 80% expected a growth in total bednights in 2013, with the majority (53%) expecting a growth of plus 1% to plus 5 %. Just 8% expected the total number of bednights to stay the same, whilst 11% expected a decrease in number of bednights in 2013.
Compared to the expectations in the previous report, slightly more expected a growth in 2013, compared to the 75%, who expected a growth in 2013 in the previous report.
Key factors affecting tourism in the 4th quarter 2013
19% expected an economic bright outlook. The positive statement hence outpace the negative economic situation, as ‘only’ 10% of experts believed the Economic situation in Europe to be a significant factor that would influence city tourism in the 4th quarter. Compared to the previous reports this is much less. In the 3rd quarter, this number was 33%.
Increasing demand (19%) and already planned and coming events (12%) was also a key factor that was believed to influence tourism in the 4th quarter.
The 21st ECM City Tourism Monitor will be released in April.
For further details on this report, or the project, please contact:
Lone Alletorp Callard (Author of this report)