European City Tourism Monitor 15th edition – Summary
Positive expectations for the 4th quarter and for 2012 as a whole
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The results of the 15th European City Tourism Monitor show that more than half (56%) of participating city tourism professionals expect bednights in the 4th quarter of 2012 to increase compared to the same period in 2011. Expectations for the whole of 2012 compared to 2011 are considerably more positive than the expectations for the 4th quarter, with as many as 74% expecting a growth in total bednights in 2012. However, when compared to expectations expressed in the last report, for the 3rd quarter of 2012, expectations are slightly less positive for both the 4th quarter and for the year 2012 as a whole.
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4th quarter 2012
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56% of those interviewed expect bednights in their city destinations to grow in the 4th quarter of 2012, compared to the same period in 2011. The majority of respondents (51%), expect growth to be between 1 and 5%, whilst 4% believe that bednight volumes will grow more than 5%. 26% believe the number of bednights will be similar to last year, and 15% are expecting a slight decrease in total bednights.
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Growth is expected to come predominantly from the leisure segment and from the international markets, though with regional differences. Expectations for growth from the six markets included in this report are not very high and are lower than was the case in the last report. The expected growth from international markets must hence come from other international markets.
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Expectations for hotel prices for the 4th quarter show a slightly more optimistic picture than the last survey. Whilst the majority of respondents (47%) still expect hotel prices to remain the same, 31% expect prices to increase.
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The difference between positive and negative expectations has narrowed overall since the last report (but is still on the positive side), with the exception of the expectations for hotel prices, which are now more optimistic.
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Expectations for 2012
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Expectations for the whole of 2012 in terms of all bednights compared to 2011 are considerably more positive than the expectations for the 4th quarter of 2012: as many as 74% expect a growth in total bednights in 2012 compared to 2011, with the majority (50%) expecting a growth of plus 1% to plus 5%. Compared to the results of the last report these expectations are, however, slightly less positive. In the previous report 80% expected a growth in total bednights for the whole of 2012.
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The economic situation in Europe and the rest of the world continues to be a key issue. 37% of experts believe this to be the most significant factor that will influence city tourism in 2012. This is considerably more than in the last report. Changes in exchange rates and events are also referred to as important factors, followed by meetings and congresses.
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For further details on this report, or the project, please contact:
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Lone Alletorp Callard (Author of this report)
Wonderful Copenhagen
lac@woco.dk
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