The ECM Crisis Monitor
This year will bring a lot of uncertainties in our lives and work. The economic crisis and the changing travel and leisure patterns of consumers create reductions in city trippers for a lot of our members. But on the other hand, it creates new opportunities, as consumers are looking for new destinations. Something they wouldn’t have done under ‘normal’ circumstances.
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In the press, the negative effects of the crisis get the most attention. It seems good news is not news at all. I noticed at the UNWTO meeting in Berlin last March that airlines, hospitality consultants and other experts are unable to do anything other than project the negative trends into the future. They collectively came to the conclusion that we are back in the same situation as before 2006, and then applied that trend to 2009. Happily the UNWTO launched the ‘Roadmap for Recovery’, and stated that the tourism and leisure sector will be the first to recover, creating turn-over and employment
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And we, as experts in tourism, are surrounded by these messages. We know from our more neutral position that there will be opportunities as well. You can already trace them in Tourmis. And we are able to catch the positive news from our industry as well. News that is not heard by the journalists.
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These were major reasons for ECM to start a project which enables us to communicate our view on development, from a more remote position (not being an airline, nor an accommodation provider). After their Dublin Meeting the R&S group launched the Crisis Monitor, where experts from our member organisations have the opportunity to give their view on recent and future developments.
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The first round, the results of which have just been released, was supported by 108 experts and provided an excellent starting point. It particularly underlined the resilience of the leisure segment in comparison with the MICE corporate and individual business travellers segments. It also highlighted the potential of domestic markets (32% of respondents expected this market to grow, 31% expected it to remain stable and the rest expected a decrease) and the fragility of the British and American markets. The next waves will give a more dynamic approach to these results since comparisons will become possible.
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If you have not joined the Crisis Monitor yet, please do so at the next opportunity, which will be at the end of June. We will do this quick scan every quarter and each participant will receive the results within a very short timeframe. So you can enhance your knowledge of the most recent developments.
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Hans Dominicus
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Chairman of the Research & Statistics Working Group
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Amsterdam Tourism & Convention Board
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